Brazil Presidential Election First Round Closes, Lula and Bolsonaro Vie for Power

Polls have closed in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, a highly polarized contest that could shape the future of Latin America's largest country and the wider region, according to The Guardian.

The election features a contest between the left-wing incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, while Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his unsuccessful 2022 re-election bid, The Guardian reported.

To avoid a second round of voting, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote, according to The Guardian and Al Jazeera. If no candidate achieves this threshold, a runoff election will be held three weeks later, The Guardian stated.

Key Candidates and Background

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is a veteran figure of the Brazilian left. He previously served two terms as president between 2003 and 2011, a period credited with significant commodity-fueled growth and poverty reduction, The Guardian reported. Lula was jailed in 2018 on corruption charges, but his conviction was quashed after 580 days in prison, according to The Guardian.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro. He is described by The Guardian as a far-right politician and an ally of Donald Trump. Like his father, Flávio Bolsonaro frequently praises the US president and has pledged to join a US-led anti-drug-cartel coalition that has reportedly conducted airstrikes and military operations across the region, The Guardian noted.

Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula by less than two percentage points in 2022, is in prison for plotting a military coup, according to The Guardian. He has endorsed his son's campaign, hoping to regain his freedom if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, The Guardian reported.

Campaign Dynamics and Allegations

The campaign leading up to Sunday's vote was marked by various developments. Lula positioned himself as one of the few regional leaders willing to oppose Trump and recently accused the US president of attempting to interfere in Brazil's election in Bolsonaro's favor, The Guardian stated. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, meanwhile, was impacted by a scandal in which he was reportedly caught on tape asking a banker accused of corruption for $26.8 million (£20 million) to fund a film about his father, The Guardian reported. There was also speculation that Bolsonaro might strip the country's patron saint of her status, according to The Guardian.

Despite these controversies, Flávio Bolsonaro remained highly competitive. Analysts suggest this reflects a combination of his father's voter base transferring to him and a broader anti-Lula sentiment. The incumbent president still faces high rejection rates, even amid strong social and economic indicators, The Guardian noted. Lula's campaign has also been affected by corruption allegations, currently under investigation, involving his son and a former aide. Additionally, a scandal involving supreme court justices, though unconnected to Lula, is seen as fueling an "anti-system" and anti-incumbent vote, according to The Guardian.

Lula and Bolsonaro have alternated as frontrunners in the final stages of the campaign, making the outcome unpredictable. Both candidates focused on persuading undecided voters in an effort to secure more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff, The Guardian reported.

Voter Sentiment and Bellwether State

On Sunday morning, Lula cast his vote in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where his political career began. He commented, "People will have to choose between strengthening democracy and barbarism," according to The Guardian. Lula downplayed Saturday's polls, which indicated a close race, stating, "The poll that matters will be carried out today," The Guardian reported.

Flávio Bolsonaro voted in Rio de Janeiro's north zone and urged supporters of other right-wing candidates to switch their allegiance to him as a "protest vote." He said, "Our internal polls show people who would have voted for other candidates, who are also against Lula, already voting for Flávio Bolsonaro … I hope it’s enough to give us victory in the first round," as quoted by The Guardian.

Claudinei Ferreira Viana, a 45-year-old workshop manager in Pinhais, Paraná state, expressed support for Flávio Bolsonaro. "My first choice would be Jair Bolsonaro but, since he is under house arrest and there is no other rightwing candidate strong enough to take on the current president, I’m going with Flávio," Viana told The Guardian.

AMC, 40, who requested to be identified only by her initials due to fears of reprisals in Amazonas state, stated she would vote for Lula "because of the many programmes he created to support the most vulnerable groups." She added, "Jair Bolsonaro weakened protections for Indigenous peoples, and everything Lula has done over the past four years to strengthen those protections and protect the Amazon would be seriously threatened if his son came to power," The Guardian reported.

Beyond the presidential race, Brazilians also elected 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal congress members, and 54 of the country's 81 senators during Sunday's vote, The Guardian stated.

The state of Minas Gerais, a mountainous mining and agricultural region larger than France with 21 million inhabitants, is considered Brazil's bellwether state. Since the return of democracy in the 1980s, no presidential candidate has won the election without also winning Minas Gerais, The Guardian reported. In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro secured Minas Gerais by more than 1.7 million votes before being elected president. Four years later, Lula reclaimed the state by fewer than 50,000 votes and subsequently won the nationwide race, according to The Guardian.

Outlook

Opinion polls suggest that no other candidate is likely to challenge the two frontrunners. However, there is no clear leader in polling for a potential runoff election, which would take place on October 25, The Guardian reported. The new president is scheduled to take office on January 5, 2027, according to The Guardian.