Flávio Bolsonaro Wins First Round of Brazil Election, Faces Lula in Runoff

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil's presidential election, defeating incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but failing to secure an outright majority, according to the BBC.

The outcome means the election will proceed to a second-round runoff on October 25, as neither candidate achieved more than 50% of the valid votes cast. With almost all votes counted, Mr. Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote compared to President Lula's 45%, the BBC reported.

Election Details and Candidates

The first round of Brazil's presidential election took place on Sunday, October 4. Brazil's president is directly elected, with each voter's ballot counting equally and no electoral college, according to The Guardian. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the valid votes, a runoff election is held three weeks later between the two highest-polling candidates.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro. He is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election, The Guardian reported. Jair Bolsonaro, who was banned from running for re-election even before his prison sentence, endorsed his son's campaign and hopes to regain his freedom if Flávio wins, according to the BBC.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is the incumbent president and a veteran of the Brazilian left. He is seeking a fourth term in office, having previously been elected in 2002, 2006, and 2022, the BBC stated. During his first two terms between 2003 and 2011, he was credited with overseeing a period of commodity-fuelled growth and poverty reduction, according to The Guardian. Brazilian presidents are limited to two consecutive terms, meaning if he wins this time, he will not be able to stand in 2030. In 2018, Lula was jailed on corruption charges, though his conviction was quashed after 580 days, The Guardian reported.

Context and Background

The campaign has been highly polarising, focusing on themes such as sovereignty, crime, the economy, and corruption, the BBC reported. President Lula's support base is stronger in Brazil's poorer northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women. Flávio Bolsonaro is more popular in the south, and among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians, according to the BBC.

Opinion polls had suggested President Lula was polling slightly ahead during the campaign, but Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round result exceeded expectations, the BBC noted. The Guardian had reported that opinion polls suggested no other candidate would come close to the two frontrunners, but also that there was no clear leader in polling for the runoff.

The 2022 election, in which Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2% of the vote, was the closest presidential election result in Brazil's history, the BBC stated. Following that election, Jair Bolsonaro's supporters vandalised government buildings on January 8, 2023. Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate on Sunday, the BBC added.

The state of Minas Gerais, a mountainous mining and agricultural region larger than France with 21 million inhabitants, is considered Brazil’s bellwether state. Since democracy returned in the 1980s, no candidate has won the presidency without triumphing in Minas. In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro won the state by more than 1.7 million votes before being elected president. Four years later, Lula reclaimed the state by fewer than 50,000 votes and also won the nationwide race, The Guardian reported.

International and Domestic Issues

US President Donald Trump commented on the election, stating he expected it to be "very close" but that Bolsonaro had a "very, very big victory" in the first round, according to the BBC. The BBC also noted that the majority of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration.

President Lula made "sovereignty" a key pillar of his campaign and at times accused the US of trying to interfere in and influence Brazil's elections, which the US has denied, the BBC reported. Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the US to designate the two biggest Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations. Last year, Donald Trump used the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro as justification for imposing tariffs on Brazil and sanctioning some top officials and judges, the BBC added.

A corruption scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds, has also been a key issue. Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Mr. Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father, with voice recordings emerging of him asking for 134 million reais ($25.9m; £19.5m). President Lula was indirectly impacted after police suggested Mr. Vorcaro had reached out to Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes to ask for help avoiding arrest, though Mr. Moraes denies any wrongdoing. Mr. Moraes, seen as an ally of Lula, presided over Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, the BBC stated.

Crime and insecurity are also major concerns for voters. While Brazil's homicide rate has fallen, street crimes like phone thefts have increased, and violence and drug trafficking remain significant problems, the BBC reported. On the economy, Brazil faces high levels of personal debt and slowing growth, according to the BBC.

Campaign Pledges and Reactions

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and his supporters responsible for the January 8 riots amnesty if elected, the BBC reported. He also plans to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorists and build maximum-security prisons similar to those in El Salvador. His father, during his presidency, loosened gun ownership restrictions. Economically, Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged a public debt ceiling, government spending cuts, a revision of social welfare programs, and to bolster the critical minerals sector, the BBC stated.

President Lula has defined his legacy through social welfare programs like Bolsa Família, which pays families to ensure children stay in education and receive healthcare, and by building more universities. These programs are credited with lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty. While he has backed oil drilling exploration, which is controversial with environmentalists, he also has a record of tightening environmental protections and reducing Amazon deforestation, which increased significantly under Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, the BBC reported. On crime, Lula has criticised the US terrorist designation of Brazilian gangs but has launched reforms to tackle financial networks of organised crime, improve homicide investigations, and invest in prisons.

Speaking to reporters, Flávio Bolsonaro expressed confidence following the first round. "I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government," he said, according to AFP, as reported by the BBC.

President Lula admitted the outcome was "unexpected" but insisted the race was not over.

"I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round," he said on Sunday. "The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people."

After casting his ballot, Lula had warned the choice was between democracy and "barbarism," the BBC reported.

The president of Brazil's supreme electoral court stated on Sunday that no evidence of international interference was found in the election, the BBC added.

What Happens Next

The runoff election between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is scheduled for October 25. A win for Flávio Bolsonaro would likely see Brazil join the US's "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking and align more closely with the US, according to the BBC. The new leader is set to take power on January 5, 2027, The Guardian reported.